Starlink Records First Subscriber Drop in Kenya with a 10% Decline in User Base
Starlink Internet Services Kenya recorded a 10.86% decline in subscriptions, falling from 19,146 users in December 2024 to 17,066 by March 2025, according to the latest figures from the Communications Authority of Kenya. The drop follows an eight-month pause on new customer activations, implemented by Starlink to address network capacity constraints amid heightened demand. This marks the company’s first recorded quarterly decline in Kenya. Notably, it was the only fixed internet provider to register a reduction in its subscriber count during the period, highlighting the challenges of sustaining growth in the absence of supporting infrastructure.
Starlink Kenya, which previously held the position of the seventh-largest internet service provider (ISP) by subscriber base, has now dropped to eighth place. Dimension Data Solutions East Africa Ltd now occupies the seventh position, having reported 18,890 active users as of March 2025. In contrast to Starlink’s trend, major providers such as Safaricom PLC and Jamii Telecommunications Ltd registered continued growth, adding 56,969 and 12,663 new subscribers, respectively, during the same period. The contrasting performance underscores the resilience of established ISPs, which are not hindered by significant infrastructure setbacks and are thus better positioned to scale operations, consistently outpacing newer entrants in infrastructure-sensitive markets.
Market Share Growth
For Starlink, this translated into an 18.8% decline in its market share growth, falling from 1.0% in December 2024 to 0.9% by March 2025, representing the sharpest quarterly drop among all ISPs during the reporting period. Since launching operations in Kenya, Starlink’s average market share growth has reached 84%, but this has now moderated to 67.37%. The shift suggests that the service may be entering a more mature phase of its growth cycle, aligning with the plateauing trend typically observed in the latter stages of the S-curve adoption model, compounded by limited supply, which made it hard to gain more customers.
However, the CAK stated that satellite internet capacity grew by 32.7%, mainly driven by the capacity consumed by Starlink customers in Kenya.
Subscriber Decline in Kenya Reflected in the Rwandan Market
Starlink’s unexpected decrease in subscriber numbers in Kenya closely mirrors what occurred in Rwanda between September and December 2024. Starlink’s subscriber base in Rwanda decreased by 16% during that period, reflecting a potential trend that may signal the onset of growth limitations in key East African markets.
Despite maintaining near-total dominance in Rwanda’s satellite internet sector, the simultaneous decline in both Kenya and Rwanda points to broader operational pressures. In Kenya, the downturn is largely attributed to the temporary suspension of new activations due to limited network capacity. In contrast, Rwanda’s decline, despite uninterrupted service, reflects emerging challenges such as market saturation, performance limitations, or pricing-related accessibility issues. Further analysis of the Rwandan case indicates that adjustments in pricing may be necessary to address underlying affordability constraints.