IGAD’S Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) today announced that the June to September (JJAS) 2022 forecast shows strong chances of wetter than normal conditions in most northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. As a result, Djibouti, Eritrea, most of the northern two-thirds of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, western Kenya, and most parts of Uganda are likely to receive more rain than usual. The highest chances of wetter conditions are for western Kenya and neighbouring Uganda, central and northern Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan.   

ICPAC also estimates that warmer than average temperatures are expected over northern Sudan, most parts of eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, and southern and central Somalia. Conversely, cooler temperatures are expected over most of the southern parts of Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, and north-eastern Ethiopia. 

Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director, stressed “the importance of the JJAS season in the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa where it contributes to more than 70% of the annual rainfall.” He also reiterated “the usefulness of regular regional climate outlook forums to help the region anticipate and adapt to climate variability and climate extremes in a continent warming faster than anywhere else in the world”.  

This was echoed by H.E Ambassador Asfaw Dingamo, State Minister, Ministry of water and energy Ethiopia, in his opening remarks to GHACOF 61: “Governments want clear and concise information whether floods or drought lead by La Niña or El Niño will be knocking on our doors. Getting precise information on the seasonal climate is a prerequisite for policymakers to develop short and medium-term social and economic strategies.” 

ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organisation. Its seasonal forecast is based on an analysis of several global climate model predictions customised for East Africa. In this instance, seven out of the seven models used by ICPAC’s scientists indicate a wetter JJAS 2022 season, thus increasing the confidence of the forecast.

Conditions, however, are expected to remain dry in most parts of equatorial Eastern Africa, particularly over the rangelands of eastern Ethiopia, coastal areas of Kenya, and southern Somalia, where drier than normal conditions are likely. Early indications for October also point towards sustained dry conditions in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, where communities have experienced up to 4 failed rainy seasons. 

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) recently renewed its call for action to national governments, donors, and international development partners to step up humanitarian assistance and resilience programs in the region where 40 million people face high levels of food insecurity.