The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) reports that according to the forecasts from global models, an El Niño event is likely to occur during the upcoming October-November-December (OND) season. The rainfall season in Eastern Africa during OND is influenced by two significant events: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). 

The ENSO is distinguished by abnormal fluctuations in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the warm phase, known as El Niño, SSTs over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warmer. In contrast, SSTs over the western part of the ocean become cooler than usual. In addition, the IOD is characterised by a gradient in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) between the western and eastern regions of the Indian Ocean. In the positive phase of IOD, warmer than average SSTs are observed in the western parts of the Indian Ocean, while cooler than usual SSTs are observed in the eastern parts of the Indian Ocean.

Furthermore, El Niño is often linked to increased rainfall in the eastern part of Eastern Africa during the OND season. In addition,  during the La Niña phase of ENSO, when the SSTs are reversed, suppressed rainfall is frequently observed in the equatorial parts of the region, as witnessed in OND 2020, 2021, and 2022. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase. Still, the forecast suggests the likelihood of a positive event developing, expected to persist through the OND season, peaking in August before gradually weakening.

It is essential to note that while El Niño forecasts are generally more reliable, the accuracy of IOD forecasting notably improves in August-September. Therefore, understanding the IOD’s evolution and its impacts on the OND season can only be ascertained towards the end of August. Thus, If both events occur, there is a possibility of increased rainfall, offering some relief to areas impacted by the recent drought. However, complete recovery may take years due to the severity of the drought. However, this increased rainfall could also result in more extreme weather events, including flash floods, riverine floods, mudslides, and landslides.

Furthermore, these events can damage farmlands and crops, resulting in post-harvest losses and increased food security in the upcoming months. Infrastructure like roads and bridges could also be destroyed, limiting access to food and essential non-food items. While there may be improved pastures for livestock, there is also a heightened risk of livestock deaths, aggravated by diseases like Rift Valley Fever and pneumonia. Moreover, existing human disease outbreaks, such as cholera, measles, and malaria, are likely to worsen with the impact of flooding, aggravating acute malnutrition. The situation could also lead to additional displacements, even as millions are already displaced due to the 2020-23 drought, and in extreme cases, there might be a loss of lives.

Thus,  it is of utmost importance for governments and humanitarian organisations to ensure the dissemination of early warning information to all while implementing contingency planning measures. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will play a critical role in consistently monitoring the developments of both El Niño and IOD. They will provide forecasts concerning the anticipated impacts throughout the forthcoming months. This proactive approach will help mitigate the potential risks and enable better preparedness to cope with the challenges posed by these climatic events.

For more information, click here.