The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued the June to September 2024 seasonal forecast shows a high probability of above-normal rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The countries expected to experience this climate change include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and much of Uganda. On the other hand, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas over western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions. The climate patterns observed in the JJAS 2024 period are similar to those of 1998 and 2010, both of which had wetter-than-average conditions over much of the region.

An early to normal onset is expected in several parts of the region, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. However, a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan. The temperature forecast shows a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

“The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) stands as a region that is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which pose significant challenges to the resilience of our communities. The forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the level of impact, especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience the impact of floods. “As we observe these recurring extreme climate events, it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role played by early warning systems, which serve as key instruments of preparedness and guide us through climate variability. Through our operations, ICPAC continues to provide relevant and actionable climate information and key information for Early Action’’, stated Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director.