Above-Normal Rainfall and Higher-Than-Normal Temperatures are Predicted Over Most Parts of the Greater Horn of Africa – ICPAC

Key Highlights

• Most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024. Affected areas include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan.
• Northern Somalia, isolated areas in western Ethiopia, and northwestern South Sudan are projected to face drier-than-usual conditions.
• ICPAC expects an early to normal onset of the rainy season in central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan.
• The forecasted climate patterns for JJAS 2024 resemble those of 1998 and 2010, known for above-average rainfall across most regions

In a press release by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the Meteorological Organisation announced that the June to September 2024 seasonal forecast shows an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The areas expected to experience these above-normal conditions include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan.

They project that northern Somalia, isolated areas in western Ethiopia, and northwestern South Sudan will encounter drier-than-usual conditions.The climate trends during the JJAS 2024 period mirror those observed in 1998 and 2010, characterised by above-average rainfall across most regions.

ICPAC anticipate an early to normal onset of the rainy season in areas such as central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. Conversely, Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan will likely experience a delayed onset. Regarding temperatures, there is a likelihood of above-average warmth across the region, particularly in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

Climate Predictions and Preparedness for the Greater Horn of Africa

According to Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director, “The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) stands as a region that is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which pose significant challenges to the resilience of our communities. The forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the level of impact, especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience the impact of floods. As we observe these recurring extreme climate events, it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role played by early warning systems, which serve as key instruments of preparedness and guide us through climate variability. Through our operations, ICPAC continues to provide actionable climate information that is relevant and key for Early Action”.

Following the guidelines and recommendations of the World Meteorological Organisation, ICPAC has implemented an objective seasonal forecast approach to produce climate predictions for the Greater Horn of Africa. They compiled and analysed the May 2024 seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) to formulate the June to September 2024 seasonal climate outlook. They assessed these forecasts and their historical data to generate a probabilistic forecast indicating the chances of above-normal, normal, or below-normal rainfall during the period.